On record: 11 meetings from 2023, 20-23 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-3 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1323 against 1570, and the model turns that into 15.1% / 21.6% / 63.3%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -177 and +70. St. Louis City is ahead on each half — 1.36 to 0.92 in attack, 1.07 to 1.83 in defence. No scoreline stands out; 1-3 only leads on 7.4%. The tie closed out 1-1. In absolute terms: Sporting Kansas City 0.92/1.83, St. Louis City 1.36/1.07 on attack and defence. A 48.2-point range top to bottom. A 41.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected goals 1.46-3.37. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-3. A 247-point spread sits between the two figures. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 523 and 129 rated matches respectively. Higher rating: the away side. Logged in advance of kickoff — 24.9% / 24.8% / 50.3%. That one did not come off. Most likely single result is St. Louis City on 63.3%. By expected share of the points: 26.0% and 74.0%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City drew 1-1 on 20 August 2026. E. Lowen opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for St. Louis City to make it 1-0. C. Harris levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Sporting Kansas City, set up by T. Calheira, to make it 1-1. Z. Bassong (15'), C. Durkin (21'), J. Miller (45') and C. Wallem (61') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have St. Louis City 247 points stronger than Sporting Kansas City. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.