On file: 34 previous meetings dating to 2012, 55-45 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1481 and 1363, 118 apart, which resolves to 63.4% / 21.6% / 15.0%.
Someone wins 78.4% of the time by this model. Columbus Crew leads the distribution by 41.8 points over the draw. A 48.4-point range top to bottom. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 8.6% — not a strong call. In absolute terms: Columbus Crew 1.16/1.20, CF Montreal 0.87/1.52 on attack and defence. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 532 and 511 matches. Goal expectation splits 2.63 to 1.40. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Its rounded call is 2-1. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -19 and -137. 63.4% goes to Columbus Crew, the model's lean. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Logged in advance of kickoff — 63.8% / 21.5% / 14.8%. The match did not follow it. There is no trade-off to weigh: Columbus Crew scores at the higher rate (1.16 to 0.87) and concedes at the lower (1.20 to 1.52). These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 74.1% to 25.9%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
CF Montreal edged past Columbus Crew 2-1 on 19 August 2026. R. Camacho (3'), B. Vera (13'), A. Gomes (34') and J. Neal (48') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Columbus Crew clearly the stronger side, by 118 rating points over CF Montreal, even though it was CF Montreal who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives CF Montreal only a 15% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. CF Montreal's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.