On file: 18 previous meetings dating to 2019, 25-40 on goals. Last time: 2026, 4-4 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1537 and 1520 drive a 49.0% / 25.1% / 25.8% distribution.
Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 7.3%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. 17 points of rating separation. The home side is rated higher. The four component numbers read 1.44, 1.66, 0.98, 0.95. Most and least likely outcomes are 23.9 points apart. Neither side holds both halves — FC Cincinnati scores at 1.44, New York City FC concedes at 0.95. Rounded, that is 2-2. Top of the distribution: FC Cincinnati, 49.0%. The forecast we stored before the match was 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8%. It landed. First to second is a 23.2-point step, FC Cincinnati over New York City FC. Behind them are 272 and 425 rated matches. The xG line reads 2.02 to 2.20. The tie closed out 2-1. A decisive result carries 74.8% against 25.1% for the draw. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +37 and +20.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
FC Cincinnati edged past New York City FC 2-1 on 19 August 2026. M. Miazga (33'), K. Parks (36'), O. Nwobodo (50'), Luighi (55'), N. Mercau (74') and S. Gidi (82') were booked. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.22 to 0.57.