Across 13 recorded meetings back to 2020 the split is 4-3-6 from Philadelphia Union's side on wins, 23-24 on goals. The last was 2026, 4-6 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1600 against 1654 — a 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.7% split.
The higher-rated side expects 48.4% of the points; the other side 51.6%. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +100 and +154. The model's preferred outcome is Philadelphia Union at 37.7%. Raw profiles are 1.64 and 1.07 against 1.86 and 1.30. The forecast we stored before the match was 16.8% / 22.2% / 61.0%. The match did not follow it. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. As a single number the model says 3-2. The split is one apiece: Inter Miami leads the attacking rate on 1.86, Philadelphia Union the defensive on 1.07. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The rating gap itself is 54 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-2 at 5.5%. The leading two outcomes sit 3.0 points apart, which is not a real preference.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami drew 2-2 on 19 August 2026. I. Vassilev opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Philadelphia Union, set up by F. Westfield, to make it 1-0. D. Pinter levelled it in the 21st minute for Inter Miami, set up by L. Suarez, to make it 1-1. L. Messi put Inter Miami in front in the 26th minute, set up by I. Fray, to make it 2-1. N. Pierre levelled it 58 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union, set up by M. Iloski, to make it 2-2. K. Wagner (43'), S. Reguilon (50') and I. Fray (55') were booked. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.