Prior record: 1-5-3 across 9 since 2012. Most recent 2023, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1542 and 1459 drive a 58.7% / 22.8% / 18.5% distribution.
Played and finished 2-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 35.9 points. Chicago Fire is ahead on each half — 1.32 to 1.15 in attack, 1.25 to 1.32 in defence. 83 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Higher rating: the home side. Between best and worst outcome there is 40.2 points of daylight. Its point estimate is 2-1. Expected goals sit at 2.59 against 1.92. No scoreline clear 8% individually. 58.7% goes to Chicago Fire, the model's lean. In absolute terms: Chicago Fire 1.32/1.25, Portland Timbers 1.15/1.32 on attack and defence. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 7.1% — not a strong call. The higher rating expects 70.1% of the points, the lower 29.9%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 494 and 529 rated matches respectively. Before kickoff our model had this at 58.9% / 22.8% / 18.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Chicago Fire edged past Portland Timbers 2-1 on 16 August 2026. R. Lod opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Chicago Fire, set up by A. Gutman, to make it 1-0. D. D'Avilla added to the tally inside the first 14 minutes for Chicago Fire, set up by M. Haile-Selassie, to make it 2-0. F. Surman pulled one back late on, in the 85th minute for Portland Timbers to make it 1-2. B. Bye (51'), R. Lod (57') and A. Saletros (79') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Chicago Fire are 83 points stronger than Portland Timbers. On current ratings the model favours Chicago Fire at 58.7% in this pairing, and Chicago Fire won this one.