On record: 28 meetings from 2015, 39-40 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1520 against 1600 — a 34.2% / 27.5% / 38.3% split.
The away side is rated higher. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +20 and +100. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.8%. The forecast we stored before the match was 56.9% / 23.3% / 19.8%. The result went the other way. Philadelphia Union sits 4.1 points above the next most likely result. Most likely single result is Philadelphia Union on 38.3%. A decisive result carries 72.5% against 27.5% for the draw. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 80 points. The split is one apiece: Philadelphia Union leads the attacking rate on 1.64, New York City FC the defensive on 0.95. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Philadelphia Union's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 52.2%. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Goal expectation splits 1.56 to 2.09. Result on the day: 2-3.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union edged past New York City FC 3-2 on 16 August 2026. N. Harriel (16'), Luighi (43'), J. Lukic (44') and M. Iloski (51') were booked. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026.