7 meetings sit in the record, first in 2023, aggregate 7-16. The latest was 2026, 3-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1504 and 1570, giving 35.8% / 28.0% / 36.2%.
Scorelines above 8%: 0. Top of the distribution: St. Louis City, 36.2%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 57.9% / 23.0% / 19.1%. That one did not come off. With 496 and 129 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. A 8.2-point range covers every outcome here. The top two outcomes are within 0.4 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. The rating gap itself is 66 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Win-or-lose totals 72.0%; the draw takes the rest. There is no trade-off to weigh: St. Louis City scores at the higher rate (1.36 to 1.17) and concedes at the lower (1.07 to 1.21). Raw profiles are 1.17 and 1.21 against 1.36 and 1.07. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 7.7%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
St. Louis City beat San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 on 16 August 2026. D. Edelman opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for St. Louis City, set up by C. Wallem, to make it 1-0. S. Becher added to the tally in the 27th minute for St. Louis City, set up by E. Lowen, to make it 2-0. B. Leroux pulled one back 47 minutes into the game for San Jose Earthquakes to make it 1-2. S. Becher added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for St. Louis City, set up by T. Totland, to make it 3-1. C. Wallem (77'), R. Roberts (82') and T. Totland (84') were booked. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.