On file: 3 previous meetings dating to 2025, 5-7 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1547 against 1535 — a 48.2% / 25.3% / 26.5% split.
Higher rating: the home side. Expected shares 60.9% against 39.1% on Elo. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 57.1% / 23.2% / 19.7%. The result went the other way. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Its point estimate is 2-1. The two ratings differ by 12 points. Los Angeles FC carries the largest share, 48.2%. Los Angeles FC sits 21.7 points above the next most likely result. It ended 0-1. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 8.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: +47 and +35. Outcomes span 22.9 points. Goal expectation splits 2.04 to 1.55. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Neither figure is thin: 323 and 63 matches respectively sit behind them. The model gives 74.7% to someone winning. The edge is split: San Diego scores at the higher rate (1.25 to 1.15), Los Angeles FC concedes at the lower (0.92 to 1.20). Raw profiles are 1.15 and 0.92 against 1.25 and 1.20.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
San Diego edged past Los Angeles FC 1-0 on 16 August 2026. A. Dreyer opened the scoring from the penalty spot late on, in the 89th minute for San Diego to make it 1-0. A. Alvarado Jr (29'), E. Segura (61'), O. Valakari (75'), M. Delgado (80'), M. Choiniere (84') and A. Dreyer (90') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives San Diego only a 26.5% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.