Across 22 recorded meetings back to 2017 the split is 3-12-7 from Real Salt Lake's side on wins, 23-32 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1433 and 1491 — 58 points — for a 37.2% / 27.7% / 35.1% split.
Top of the distribution: Real Salt Lake, 37.2%. Rating separation comes to 58 points. Raw profiles are 0.91 and 1.27 against 1.25 and 1.38. Someone wins 72.3% of the time by this model. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 41.8% / 26.7% / 31.4%. The match did not follow it. Expected goals sit at 1.86 against 2.14. Played and finished 1-1. Rounded, that is 1-2. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 7.8%. The leading two outcomes sit 2.1 points apart, which is not a real preference. No scoreline clear 8% individually. By expected share of the points: 51.0% and 49.0%. Neither figure is thin: 522 and 334 matches respectively sit behind them. The three outcomes sit within 9.5 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The away side is rated higher. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Real Salt Lake and Minnesota United FC drew 1-1 on 16 August 2026. S. Solans opened the scoring late on, in the 82nd minute for Real Salt Lake, set up by D. Luna, to make it 1-0. J. Pereyra levelled it late on, in the 89th minute for Minnesota United FC, set up by M. Caldeira, to make it 1-1. Z. Booth (12'), J. Diaz (32'), Lineker Rodrigues (56') and (68') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Minnesota United FC are 58 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026. Minnesota United FC's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.