On record: 29 meetings from 2012, 42-40 on aggregate, 10 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1543 against 1497, and the model turns that into 53.5% / 24.1% / 22.4%.
The two ratings differ by 46 points. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +43 and -3. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Houston Dynamo carries the largest share, 53.5%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. First to second is a 29.4-point step, Houston Dynamo over the draw. By expected share of the points: 65.5% and 34.5%. A 31.1-point range top to bottom. Rounded, that is 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.89, 0.82, 0.99, 1.16. Behind them are 520 and 526 rated matches. Expected goals sit at 1.54 against 1.10. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.1% — not a strong call. The model gives 75.9% to someone winning. The split is one apiece: Los Angeles Galaxy leads the attacking rate on 0.99, Houston Dynamo the defensive on 0.82. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 52.3% / 24.4% / 23.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Houston Dynamo edged past Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 on 16 August 2026. Guilherme opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 21st minute for Houston Dynamo to make it 1-0. C. Garces (58') and I. Aliyu (101') were sent off. H. Herrera (46'), L. Ennali (56'), H. Lozano (94'), I. Aliyu (99') and I. Aliyu (101') were booked.