20 meetings sit in the record, first in 2020, aggregate 26-32. The latest was 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1665 and 1654, giving 48.1% / 25.3% / 26.6%.
Nashville SC carries the largest share, 48.1%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 11 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-2. A decisive result carries 74.7% against 25.3% for the draw. The scoreline spread is even — 2-2 on 6.4% leads, but only just. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither figure is thin: 232 and 241 matches respectively sit behind them. Most and least likely outcomes are 22.8 points apart. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Logged in advance of kickoff — 31.1% / 26.6% / 42.3%. The result went the other way. Inter Miami has the better scoring rate (1.86) and Nashville SC the better defensive one (0.83). Expected shares on the Elo curve: 60.8% and 39.2%. xG: 2.83 to 2.07. Nashville SC holds a 21.5-point edge on the next outcome. Raw profiles are 1.46 and 0.83 against 1.86 and 1.30.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Nashville SC comfortably beat Inter Miami 4-1 on 16 August 2026. A. Najar opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Nashville SC, set up by E. Saad, to make it 1-0. T. Segovia levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Inter Miami, set up by L. Messi, to make it 1-1. Nashville SC regained the lead through H. Mukhtar 49 minutes into the game, set up by E. Saad, to make it 2-1. S. Surridge added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Nashville SC, set up by C. Espinoza, to make it 3-1. H. Mukhtar added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Nashville SC, set up by B. Schwake, to make it 4-1. Casemiro (47'), S. Surridge (51'), L. Messi (59') and D. Ruiz (78') were booked. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.