Prior record: 5-4-5 across 14 since 2019. Most recent 2026, 2-6 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1491 and 1537, a 46-point margin, and the model splits the tie 38.9% / 27.4% / 33.7%.
No scoreline clear 8% individually. By expected share of the points: 52.7% and 47.3%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.30/1.62 and 1.44/1.66. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 46 points. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -9 and +37. Orlando City SC carries the largest share, 38.9%. The ratings draw on 410 and 272 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The three outcomes sit within 11.5 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Each side owns one half of the argument — FC Cincinnati the scoring rate at 1.44, Orlando City SC the conceding rate at 1.62. Higher rating: the away side. Before kickoff our model had this at 32.2% / 27.0% / 40.8%. The result went the other way. The scoreline spread is even — 3-3 on 5.0% leads, but only just. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati drew 1-1 on 15 August 2026. P. Bucha opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for FC Cincinnati to make it 1-0. T. Spicer levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by J. Ellis, to make it 1-1. R. Jansson (29'), Evander (55') and M. Miazga (85') were booked.