Across 12 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 5-3-4 in Colorado Rapids's favour on wins, 16-14 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1464 and 1449, giving 48.6% / 25.2% / 26.2%.
Colorado Rapids's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.3%. Result on the day: 1-0. 15 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. A 23.4-point range top to bottom. Behind them are 500 and 202 rated matches. Logged in advance of kickoff — 52.5% / 24.3% / 23.2%. It landed. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.5% leads, but only just. In absolute terms: Colorado Rapids 0.94/1.07, Austin 0.84/1.17 on attack and defence. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 48.6% goes to Colorado Rapids, the model's lean. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -36 and -51. The model gives 74.8% to someone winning. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Colorado Rapids is ahead on each half — 0.94 to 0.84 in attack, 1.07 to 1.17 in defence.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Colorado Rapids edged past Austin 1-0 on 2 August 2026. Rafael Navarro opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 94th minute for Colorado Rapids to make it 1-0. E. Torres (70'), J. Rosales (72'), M. Uzuni (93') and Rafael Navarro (95') were booked. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. Expected goals put the gap at 2.98 to 1.25.