On file: 6 previous meetings dating to 2023, 11-12 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1570 and 1433 — 137 points — for a 65.7% / 20.9% / 13.3% split.
The forecast we stored before the match was 36.4% / 27.9% / 35.7%. The result went the other way. The match finished 1-1. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. A 52.4-point range top to bottom. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 8.9%. Neither component contradicts the other: St. Louis City leads 1.36-0.91 forward and 1.07-1.27 back. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Win-or-lose totals 79.0%; the draw takes the rest. On expected goals the model has it 2.57 against 1.31. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Attack/defence pairs: 1.36/1.07 and 0.91/1.27. 137 points of rating separation. Behind them are 129 and 522 rated matches. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +70 and -67. Expected shares 76.2% against 23.8% on Elo. First to second is a 44.8-point step, St. Louis City over the draw. Top of the distribution: St. Louis City, 65.7%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake drew 1-1 on 2 August 2026. S. Solans opened the scoring 60 minutes into the game for Real Salt Lake, set up by S. Lobjanidze, to make it 1-0. M. Hartel levelled it 73 minutes into the game for St. Louis City to make it 1-1. Z. Booth (6'), E. Lowen (28'), P. Quinton (29'), D. Yedlin (40'), C. Durkin (43') and S. Jeong (80') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have St. Louis City 137 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.