On record: 39 meetings from 2012, 51-48 on aggregate, 13 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 0-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1323 and 1543, 220 apart, which resolves to 17.7% / 22.5% / 59.8%.
Expected shares 29.1% against 70.9% on Elo. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 9.8%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 24.5% / 24.7% / 50.7%. That call matched the result. A decisive result carries 77.5% against 22.5% for the draw. The model's preferred outcome is Houston Dynamo at 59.8%. Versus the 1500 seed: -177 and +43. The three results cover 42.1 points. Houston Dynamo holds a 37.3-point edge on the next outcome. On expected goals the model has it 1.12 against 2.20. Each side owns one half of the argument — Sporting Kansas City the scoring rate at 0.92, Houston Dynamo the conceding rate at 0.82. With 523 and 520 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The away side is rated higher. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Its rounded call is 1-2. Attack/defence pairs: 0.92/1.83 and 0.89/0.82. The rating gap itself is 220 points, which is wide by the model's standards.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Houston Dynamo beat Sporting Kansas City 2-0 on 2 August 2026. Guilherme opened the scoring 55 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo, set up by J. McGlynn, to make it 1-0. A. Bouzat added to the tally 71 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo to make it 2-0. L. Johnsen (46') was sent off. L. Johnsen (11'), L. Johnsen (46') and Lucas Halter (86') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Houston Dynamo 220 points stronger than Sporting Kansas City. On current ratings the model favours Houston Dynamo at 59.8% in this pairing, and Houston Dynamo won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 0.21 to 1.86.