The head-to-head counts 8 recorded meetings since 2022: 3 to Chicago Fire, 5 to Charlotte, 0 drawn, 16-17 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 3-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1542 against 1569, and the model turns that into 42.1% / 26.7% / 31.2%.
Expected goals 1.98-2.17. Honours split: 1.32 forward for Chicago Fire, 1.01 back for Charlotte. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 7.3%. Ratings sit 27 apart. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. Raw profiles are 1.32 and 1.25 against 1.29 and 1.01. Logged in advance of kickoff — 52.7% / 24.3% / 23.1%. That call matched the result. Elo expected shares: 55.4% and 44.6%. Most and least likely outcomes are 15.4 points apart. Chicago Fire sits 10.9 points above the next most likely result. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Higher rating: the away side. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +42 and +69. The match finished 2-1. Someone wins 73.3% of the time by this model. Top of the distribution: Chicago Fire, 42.1%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 494 and 167 rated matches respectively.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Chicago Fire edged past Charlotte 2-1 on 2 August 2026. P. Biel opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Charlotte, set up by I. Toklomati, to make it 1-0. R. Lewandowski levelled it in the 20th minute for Chicago Fire, set up by P. Zinckernagel, to make it 1-1. R. Lewandowski put Chicago Fire in front 68 minutes into the game, set up by R. Lod, to make it 2-1. A. Saletros (10') and J. Waterman (59') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Charlotte slightly the stronger side, by 27 rating points over Chicago Fire, even though it was Chicago Fire who won this one. Charlotte are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.