Prior record: 12-5-8 across 25 since 2015. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1469 against 1491, and the model turns that into 43.0% / 26.5% / 30.5%.
The single-scoreline output is 2-2. The higher-rated side expects 43.8% of the points; the other side 56.2%. One edge each: scoring to Orlando City SC (1.30 v 1.00), conceding to New York Red Bulls (1.20 v 1.62). No scoreline clear 8% individually. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Higher rating: the away side. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 537 and 410 rated matches respectively. No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 7.0%. New York Red Bulls carries the largest share, 43.0%. Expected goals sit at 2.40 against 2.11. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 48.0% / 25.4% / 26.6%. It landed. Result on the day: 3-2. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 22 points. The gap between first and second outcome is 12.5 points, New York Red Bulls ahead of Orlando City SC. Win-or-lose totals 73.5%; the draw takes the rest. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -31 and -9.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
New York Red Bulls edged past Orlando City SC 3-2 on 1 August 2026. M. Jimenez opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for New York Red Bulls, set up by G. Berggren, to make it 1-0. E. Forsberg added to the tally in the 43rd minute for New York Red Bulls, set up by C. Cowell, to make it 2-0. T. Spicer pulled one back 52 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by B. Ojeda, to make it 1-2. M. Jimenez added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for New York Red Bulls, set up by C. Cowell, to make it 3-1. G. Dorsey pulled one back 63 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by A. Griezmann, to make it 2-3. D. Nealis (27'), J. Che (59'), I. Angulo (69') and H. Sarajian (88') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Orlando City SC just 22 rating points ahead of New York Red Bulls, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them.