20 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 29-28. The latest was 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1600 and 1398 drive a 73.0% / 18.7% / 8.4% distribution.
Spread thin across outcomes, 3-1 highest at 7.8%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 60.6% / 22.3% / 17.1%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Most and least likely outcomes are 64.6 points apart. Ratings sit 202 apart. There is no trade-off to weigh: Philadelphia Union scores at the higher rate (1.64 to 0.93) and concedes at the lower (1.07 to 1.29). Both figures rest on decent samples, 526 and 348 matches. Versus the 1500 seed: +100 and -102. Philadelphia Union carries the largest share, 73.0%. A decisive result carries 81.4% against 18.7% for the draw. First to second is a 54.3-point step, Philadelphia Union over the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 1.64/1.07 and 0.93/1.29. xG: 3.14 to 1.35. Result on the day: 3-2. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Reduced to one result that is 3-1. By expected share of the points: 82.3% and 17.7%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union edged past Atlanta United FC 3-2 on 1 August 2026. E. Mihaj (26') was sent off. M. Iloski (28'), N. Harriel (53'), L. Hoyos (59') and B. Damiani (68') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Philadelphia Union 202 points stronger than Atlanta United FC. On current ratings the model favours Philadelphia Union at 73% in this pairing, and Philadelphia Union won this one. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026.