On file: 25 previous meetings dating to 2018, 29-51 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1672 and 1547, giving 64.2% / 21.3% / 14.4%.
The forecast we stored before the match was 58.7% / 22.8% / 18.5%. That one did not come off. Vancouver Whitecaps holds both halves of the profile — 1.56 against 1.15 for scoring, 0.70 against 0.92 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Spread across the three results is 49.8 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Behind them are 390 and 323 rated matches. The xG line reads 2.12 to 1.08. Vancouver Whitecaps carries the largest share, 64.2%. It ended 1-1. Higher rating: the home side. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 125 points. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: +172 and +47. Its point estimate is 2-1. Someone wins 78.6% of the time by this model. The gap between first and second outcome is 42.9 points, Vancouver Whitecaps ahead of the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 1.56/0.70 and 1.15/0.92. Vancouver Whitecaps's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 74.9%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Vancouver Whitecaps and Los Angeles FC drew 1-1 on 1 August 2026. Son Heung-Min opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Los Angeles FC, set up by D. Bouanga, to make it 1-0. T. Muller levelled it from the penalty spot 75 minutes into the game for Vancouver Whitecaps to make it 1-1. R. Hollingshead (48') and R. Gauld (56') were booked. Expected goals put the gap at 2.19 to 0.26.