Across 29 recorded meetings back to 2015 the split is 12-8-9 in New York City FC's favour on wins, 46-48 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1520 and 1462, giving 55.3% / 23.7% / 21.1%.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +20 and -38. Point estimate: 2-1. Win-or-lose totals 76.4%; the draw takes the rest. New York City FC sits 31.6 points above the next most likely result. The higher-rated side expects 67.0% of the points; the other side 33.0%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 425 and 520 rated matches respectively. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.0%. The four component numbers read 0.98, 0.95, 1.20, 1.39. Most and least likely outcomes are 34.2 points apart. One edge each: scoring to Toronto FC (1.20 v 0.98), conceding to New York City FC (0.95 v 1.39). The tie closed out 1-1. A 58-point difference on the rating scale. The forecast we stored before the match was 64.9% / 21.2% / 13.9%. The result went the other way.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
New York City FC and Toronto FC drew 1-1 on 31 July 2026. N. Mercau opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 8 minutes for New York City FC to make it 1-0. D. Mihailovic levelled it 51 minutes into the game for Toronto FC to make it 1-1. R. Laryea (6'), Talles Magno (11'), N. Mercau (18'), J. Osorio (51'), N. Dorsch (56') and J. Gilman (61') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: New York City FC are 58 points stronger than Toronto FC.