The head-to-head counts 39 recorded meetings since 2012: 15 to Portland Timbers, 13 to Real Salt Lake, 11 drawn, 62-54 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1459 and 1433 drive a 50.3% / 24.8% / 24.8% distribution.
First to second is a 25.5-point step, Portland Timbers over the draw. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -41 and -67. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. The forecast we stored before the match was 32.8% / 27.1% / 40.1%. The match did not follow it. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 8.6%. With 529 and 522 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. A decisive result carries 75.1% against 24.8% for the draw. The model's preferred outcome is Portland Timbers at 50.3%. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.32 against 0.91 and 1.27. Higher rating: the home side. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 26 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Expected goals come out at 2.15 to 1.62. A 25.5-point range top to bottom. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Portland Timbers edged past Real Salt Lake 2-1 on 26 July 2026. J. Sanabria opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Real Salt Lake, set up by M. Guilavogui, to make it 1-0. F. Mora levelled it 56 minutes into the game for Portland Timbers, set up by A. Lassiter, to make it 1-1. F. Mora put Portland Timbers in front 67 minutes into the game, set up by K. Velde, to make it 2-1. M. Guilavogui (34') was sent off. C. Bassett (10'), D. Chara (41') and S. Solans (55') were booked. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026. Expected goals put the gap at 2.58 to 0.15.