Prior record: 13-9-17 across 39 since 2012. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1504 and 1497, giving 47.5% / 25.5% / 27.0%.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. A 22.0-point range top to bottom. The rating gap itself is 7 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +4 and -3. San Jose Earthquakes carries the largest share, 47.5%. By expected share of the points: 60.2% and 39.8%. Before kickoff our model had this at 60.4% / 22.4% / 17.2%. That one did not come off. Neither figure is thin: 496 and 526 matches respectively sit behind them. The match finished 1-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 8.7%. The four component numbers read 1.17, 1.21, 0.99, 1.16. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. A 20.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.02 and 1.62. 74.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The edge is split: San Jose Earthquakes scores at the higher rate (1.17 to 0.99), Los Angeles Galaxy concedes at the lower (1.16 to 1.21).
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy drew 1-1 on 26 July 2026. J. Paintsil opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Los Angeles Galaxy, set up by M. Reus, to make it 1-0. R. Roberts levelled it 62 minutes into the game for San Jose Earthquakes to make it 1-1. L. Sanabria (43'), J. Aude (48'), B. Leroux (80'), I. Harkes (81') and J. Ricketts (90') were booked. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.