On file: 16 previous meetings dating to 2018, 31-19 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1547 against 1323, and the model turns that into 75.1% / 17.9% / 7.0%.
The higher rating expects 84.1% of the points, the lower 15.9%. 75.1% goes to Los Angeles FC, the model's lean. Both components point the same way, toward Los Angeles FC: 1.15 to 0.92 going forward, 0.92 to 1.83 going back. Scorelines above 8%: 1. In absolute terms: Los Angeles FC 1.15/0.92, Sporting Kansas City 0.92/1.83 on attack and defence. Expected goals come out at 3.12 to 1.14. The three results cover 68.1 points. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +47 and -177. A 57.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Logged in advance of kickoff — 79.1% / 16.3% / 4.6%. That call matched the result. Spread thin across outcomes, 3-1 highest at 8.2%. It ended 4-0. 224 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Point estimate: 3-1. The model gives 82.1% to someone winning. Higher rating: the home side.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Los Angeles FC overwhelmed Sporting Kansas City 4-0 on 26 July 2026. Manu García (2') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Los Angeles FC 224 points stronger than Sporting Kansas City. On current ratings the model favours Los Angeles FC at 75.1% in this pairing, and Los Angeles FC won this one.