Prior record: 2-1-0 across 3 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 3-3 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1535 against 1581 — a 39.1% / 27.3% / 33.6% split.
Its point estimate is 2-2. The three outcomes sit within 11.8 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The two halves pull apart — FC Dallas better going forward at 1.33, San Diego tighter at the back on 1.20. Most likely single result is San Diego on 39.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Raw profiles are 1.25 and 1.20 against 1.33 and 1.21. Both figures rest on decent samples, 63 and 518 matches. The tie closed out 1-0. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 41.9% / 26.7% / 31.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. San Diego holds a 5.5-point edge on the next outcome. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. xG: 2.25 to 2.15. A decisive result carries 72.7% against 27.3% for the draw. Distance between the ratings: 46 points, moderate on this scale. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +35 and +81. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Elo expected shares: 52.7% and 47.3%. No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 7.2%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
San Diego edged past FC Dallas 1-0 on 26 July 2026. A. Alvarado Jr opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for San Diego, set up by M. Duah, to make it 1-0. B. Kamungo (81') and (89') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make FC Dallas slightly the stronger side, by 46 rating points over San Diego, even though it was San Diego who won this one. FC Dallas are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. Expected goals put the gap at 1.56 to 0.33.