7 meetings sit in the record, first in 2023, aggregate 5-9. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1570 against 1464, and the model turns that into 61.9% / 22.0% / 16.1%.
Neither component contradicts the other: St. Louis City leads 1.36-0.94 forward and 1.07-1.07 back. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 48.9% / 25.2% / 25.9%. That call matched the result. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.4%. Outcomes span 45.8 points. Expected goals come out at 2.18 to 1.36. Result on the day: 1-0. Rounded, that is 2-1. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Both figures rest on decent samples, 129 and 500 matches. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +70 and -36. A decisive result carries 78.0% against 22.0% for the draw. A 106-point spread sits between the two figures. Expected shares 72.8% against 27.2% on Elo. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The gap between first and second outcome is 39.9 points, St. Louis City ahead of the draw. The four component numbers read 1.36, 1.07, 0.94, 1.07. Higher rating: the home side. St. Louis City carries the largest share, 61.9%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
St. Louis City edged past Colorado Rapids 1-0 on 26 July 2026. T. Ostrak opened the scoring late on, in the 83rd minute for St. Louis City, set up by T. Totland, to make it 1-0. R. Holding (12') was sent off. H. Ojediran (25'), C. Durkin (48') and J. Atencio (68') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have St. Louis City 106 points stronger than Colorado Rapids. On current ratings the model favours St. Louis City at 61.9% in this pairing, and St. Louis City won this one. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.