Prior record: 5-1-8 across 14 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1543 against 1449 — a 60.2% / 22.4% / 17.4% split.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 59.3% / 22.7% / 18.0%. That call matched the result. In absolute terms: Houston Dynamo 0.89/0.82, Austin 0.84/1.17 on attack and defence. By expected share of the points: 71.4% and 28.6%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +43 and -51. Ratings sit 94 apart. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Final score: 3-0. The scoreline spread is even — 1-0 on 13.0% leads, but only just. Neither figure is thin: 520 and 202 matches respectively sit behind them. Win-or-lose totals 77.6%; the draw takes the rest. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Houston Dynamo carries the largest share, 60.2%. Expected goals come out at 1.54 to 0.93. A 42.8-point range top to bottom. Houston Dynamo holds both halves of the profile — 0.89 against 0.84 for scoring, 0.82 against 1.17 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. A 37.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Houston Dynamo comfortably beat Austin 3-0 on 26 July 2026. M. Bogusz opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Houston Dynamo, set up by E. Ponce, to make it 1-0. M. Bogusz added to the tally in the 29th minute for Houston Dynamo, set up by Guilherme, to make it 2-0. Guilherme added to the tally in the 32nd minute for Houston Dynamo, set up by A. Bouzat, to make it 3-0. I. Sanchez (18'), Felipe Andrade (42'), B. Sabovic (62') and Lucas Halter (62') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Houston Dynamo are 94 points stronger than Austin. All the scoring was done by half time. On current ratings the model favours Houston Dynamo at 60.2% in this pairing, and Houston Dynamo won this one. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.