Prior record: 4-3-3 across 10 since 2022. Most recent 2026, 1-6 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1469 and 1569, 100 apart, which resolves to 31.7% / 26.8% / 41.5%.
The away side is rated higher. 73.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Charlotte carries the largest share, 41.5%. Goal expectation splits 1.50 to 2.10. Charlotte leads the distribution by 9.8 points over New York Red Bulls. Raw profiles are 1.00 and 1.20 against 1.29 and 1.01. Versus the 1500 seed: -31 and +69. Elo expected shares: 45.0% and 55.0%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 100 points. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.0%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread across the three results is 14.7 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Result on the day: 0-2. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-2. Charlotte holds both halves of the profile — 1.29 against 1.00 for scoring, 1.01 against 1.20 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. With 537 and 167 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Charlotte beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 on 25 July 2026. P. Biel opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Charlotte, set up by L. Abada, to make it 1-0. A. Westwood added to the tally inside the first 12 minutes for Charlotte, set up by K. A. Calderon Vargas, to make it 2-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Charlotte 100 points stronger than New York Red Bulls. Charlotte are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 2.21 to 0.27.