On record: 24 meetings from 2015, 40-24 on aggregate, 8 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 3-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1520 and 1542, giving 43.0% / 26.5% / 30.5%.
Distance between the ratings: 22 points, narrow on this scale. Neither figure is thin: 425 and 494 matches respectively sit behind them. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Before kickoff our model had this at 44.8% / 26.1% / 29.1%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +20 and +42. It ended 3-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/0.95 and 1.32/1.25. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The gap between first and second outcome is 12.5 points, New York City FC ahead of Chicago Fire. Higher rating: the away side. Chicago Fire's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.8%. Most and least likely outcomes are 16.5 points apart. On expected goals the model has it 1.82 against 1.69. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.2%. Win-or-lose totals 73.5%; the draw takes the rest.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
New York City FC beat Chicago Fire 3-1 on 25 July 2026. N. Mercau opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for New York City FC to make it 1-0. J. Waterman levelled it in the 21st minute for Chicago Fire to make it 1-1. New York City FC regained the lead through A. Ojeda in the 29th minute, set up by A. Perea, to make it 2-1. M. Jones added to the tally in the 41st minute for New York City FC, set up by A. Ojeda, to make it 3-1. D. D'Avilla (51'), N. Mercau (62'), J. Waterman (77') and P. Dithejane (80') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Chicago Fire just 22 rating points ahead of New York City FC, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. All the scoring was done by half time.