On file: 13 previous meetings dating to 2020, 21-28 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-7 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1363 and 1654 drive a 11.3% / 20.1% / 68.6% distribution.
Before kickoff our model had this at 9.2% / 19.1% / 71.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The tie closed out 0-1. Flat distribution — 1-3 tops it at just 6.4%. The gap between first and second outcome is 48.5 points, Inter Miami ahead of the draw. Rating separation comes to 291 points. Expected goals 1.67-3.82. A 57.3-point range top to bottom. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -137 and +154. Inter Miami is ahead on each half — 1.86 to 0.87 in attack, 1.30 to 1.52 in defence. Both figures rest on decent samples, 511 and 241 matches. 68.6% goes to Inter Miami, the model's lean. Higher rating: the away side. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher-rated side expects 78.6% of the points; the other side 21.4%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Inter Miami edged past CF Montreal 1-0 on 25 July 2026. L. Suarez opened the scoring from the penalty spot late on, in the 81st minute for Inter Miami to make it 1-0. I. Fray (23') and T. Segovia (84') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Inter Miami 291 points stronger than CF Montreal. On current ratings the model favours Inter Miami at 68.6% in this pairing, and Inter Miami won this one. CF Montreal's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.65 to 0.61.