Across 7 recorded meetings back to 2015 the split is 1-3-3 from San Jose Earthquakes's side on wins, 9-13 on goals. The last was 2024, 0-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1504 and 1491, 13 apart, which resolves to 48.4% / 25.3% / 26.3%.
Distance between the ratings: 13 points, narrow on this scale. xG: 2.82 to 2.13. Neither side holds both halves — Orlando City SC scores at 1.30, San Jose Earthquakes concedes at 1.21. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected shares 61.0% against 39.0% on Elo. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +4 and -9. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 496 and 410 matches. San Jose Earthquakes carries the largest share, 48.4%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-2 on 6.4%. The distribution runs from 48.4% down to 25.3%. Rounded, that is 2-2. San Jose Earthquakes leads the distribution by 22.1 points over Orlando City SC. The tie closed out 0-4. Win-or-lose totals 74.7%; the draw takes the rest. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The four component numbers read 1.17, 1.21, 1.30, 1.62. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Orlando City SC overwhelmed San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 on 23 July 2026. D. Brekalo opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Orlando City SC, set up by E. Atuesta, to make it 1-0. I. Angulo added to the tally in the 29th minute for Orlando City SC, set up by E. Atuesta, to make it 2-0. A. Griezmann added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by J. Ellis, to make it 3-0. B. Ojeda added to the tally 73 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by E. Atuesta, to make it 4-0. E. Atuesta (36'), T. Werner (46'), R. Vieira (52'), P. Judd (67'), H. Sarajian (80') and (95') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, San Jose Earthquakes just 13 rating points ahead of Orlando City SC, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Orlando City SC only a 26.3% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.