Prior record: 11-5-9 across 25 since 2017. Most recent 2025, 0-3 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1323 and 1491, 168 apart, which resolves to 23.4% / 24.4% / 52.2%.
These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Minnesota United FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 64.4%. 52.2% goes to Minnesota United FC, the model's lean. Attack/defence pairs: 0.92/1.83 and 1.25/1.38. Win-or-lose totals 75.6%; the draw takes the rest. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -177 and -9. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Minnesota United FC leads the distribution by 27.8 points over the draw. Minnesota United FC holds both halves of the profile — 1.25 against 0.92 for scoring, 1.38 against 1.83 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The ratings draw on 523 and 334 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The away side is rated higher. Rating separation comes to 168 points. No scoreline stands out; 1-3 only leads on 6.4%. The xG line reads 1.88 to 3.09. Reduced to one result that is 1-3. A 28.8-point range top to bottom.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Sporting Kansas City edged past Minnesota United FC 2-1 on 23 July 2026. D. Joveljic opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Sporting Kansas City, set up by Capita, to make it 1-0. M. Garcia added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Sporting Kansas City, set up by J. Davis, to make it 2-0. D. Padelford pulled one back 75 minutes into the game for Minnesota United FC to make it 1-2. K. Duncan (21'), Capita (47'), J. Pereyra (56'), D. Joveljic (74') and B. Hlongwane (84') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Minnesota United FC clearly the stronger side, by 168 rating points over Sporting Kansas City, even though it was Sporting Kansas City who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Sporting Kansas City only a 23.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Minnesota United FC's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.06 to 1.62.