11 meetings sit in the record, first in 2021, aggregate 17-21. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1654 and 1542, giving 62.6% / 21.8% / 15.6%.
A 112-point difference on the rating scale. Goal expectation splits 3.44 to 2.31. Someone wins 78.2% of the time by this model. The home side is rated higher. Played and finished 3-2. 62.6% goes to Inter Miami, the model's lean. No scoreline stands out; 3-2 only leads on 5.8%. Scorelines above 8%: 0. The higher rating expects 73.5% of the points, the lower 26.5%. Inter Miami sits 40.8 points above the next most likely result. Both figures rest on decent samples, 241 and 494 matches. Between best and worst outcome there is 47.0 points of daylight. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +154 and +42. Its point estimate is 3-2. Neither side holds both halves — Inter Miami scores at 1.86, Chicago Fire concedes at 1.25. Raw profiles are 1.86 and 1.30 against 1.32 and 1.25.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Inter Miami edged past Chicago Fire 3-2 on 22 July 2026. R. Rios (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Chicago Fire to make it 1-0. L. Suarez levelled it from the penalty spot in the 27th minute for Inter Miami to make it 1-1. L. Suarez put Inter Miami in front 51 minutes into the game, set up by G. Berterame, to make it 2-1. P. Dithejane levelled it 67 minutes into the game for Chicago Fire, set up by M. Haile-Selassie, to make it 2-2. Inter Miami regained the lead through Inter Miami late on, in the 87th minute to make it 3-2. J. Elliott (64') was booked. On current ratings the model favours Inter Miami at 62.6% in this pairing, and Inter Miami won this one. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.54 to 1.55.