14 meetings sit in the record, first in 2020, aggregate 22-20. The latest was 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1665 and 1398, 267 apart, which resolves to 78.9% / 16.4% / 4.7%.
Expected goals sit at 2.81 against 1.04. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 232 and 348 matches. Nashville SC sits 62.5 points above the next most likely result. Elo expected shares: 87.1% and 12.9%. A decisive result carries 83.6% against 16.4% for the draw. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 8.7%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Neither component contradicts the other: Nashville SC leads 1.46-0.93 forward and 0.83-1.29 back. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +165 and -102. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Most likely single result is Nashville SC on 78.9%. The match finished 1-0. Its rounded call is 2-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 74.2 points of daylight. Raw profiles are 1.46 and 0.83 against 0.93 and 1.29. Ratings sit 267 apart. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Nashville SC edged past Atlanta United FC 1-0 on 18 July 2026. S. Mohammed opened the scoring 79 minutes into the game for Nashville SC, set up by A. Muyl, to make it 1-0. S. Mohammed (85') was booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Nashville SC 267 points stronger than Atlanta United FC. On current ratings the model favours Nashville SC at 78.9% in this pairing, and Nashville SC won this one. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.33 to 1.32.