On file: 39 previous meetings dating to 2013, 62-65 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1545 against 1459, and the model turns that into 59.1% / 22.7% / 18.2%.
The home side is rated higher. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +45 and -41. First to second is a 36.4-point step, Seattle Sounders over the draw. Neither figure is thin: 559 and 529 matches respectively sit behind them. 86 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. 77.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The model's preferred outcome is Seattle Sounders at 59.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 2. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Outcomes span 40.9 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 70.5% to 29.5%. On expected goals the model has it 2.01 against 1.43. Raw profiles are 1.02 and 0.93 against 1.15 and 1.32. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 9.3%. Neither side holds both halves — Portland Timbers scores at 1.15, Seattle Sounders concedes at 0.93. As a single number the model says 2-1. The tie closed out 1-5.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Portland Timbers overwhelmed Seattle Sounders 5-1 on 17 July 2026. J. Ragen (41') and P. Rothrock (49') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Seattle Sounders slightly the stronger side, by 86 rating points over Portland Timbers, even though it was Portland Timbers who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Portland Timbers only a 18.2% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Portland Timbers at around 1.43 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.