Prior record: 3-4-4 across 11 since 2023. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1570 and 1323, giving 77.3% / 17.1% / 5.7%.
No scoreline clear 8% individually. A 60.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The model's preferred outcome is St. Louis City at 77.3%. Outcomes span 71.6 points. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +70 and -177. The ratings draw on 129 and 523 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The higher rating expects 85.8% of the points, the lower 14.2%. Reduced to one result that is 3-1. Neither component contradicts the other: St. Louis City leads 1.36-0.92 forward and 1.07-1.83 back. Final score: 3-2. Expected goals 3.71-1.32. Spread thin across outcomes, 3-1 highest at 7.3%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.36/1.07 and 0.92/1.83. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 83.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 247-point spread sits between the two figures.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
St. Louis City edged past Sporting Kansas City 3-2 on 17 July 2026. Capita (78') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have St. Louis City 247 points stronger than Sporting Kansas City. On current ratings the model favours St. Louis City at 77.3% in this pairing, and St. Louis City won this one. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.