Prior record: 8-3-5 across 16 since 2012. Most recent 2024, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1539 and 1543, a 4-point margin, and the model splits the tie 45.7% / 25.9% / 28.4%.
Most likely single result is New England Revolution on 45.7%. The edge is split: New England Revolution scores at the higher rate (1.31 to 0.89), Houston Dynamo concedes at the lower (0.82 to 1.04). On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 4 points. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.5% — not a strong call. With 515 and 520 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The leading outcome clears the second by 17.3 points. The xG line reads 1.60 to 1.26. Raw profiles are 1.31 and 1.04 against 0.89 and 0.82. A decisive result carries 74.1% against 25.9% for the draw. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 42.6% / 26.6% / 30.9%. The match did not follow it. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +39 and +43. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The Elo curve splits the expected points 58.7% to 41.3% here.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Houston Dynamo beat New England Revolution 2-0 on 8 August 2026. Guilherme opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo to make it 1-0. A. Resch added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo, set up by J. McGlynn, to make it 2-0. L. Ennali (54'), B. Raines (93') and (94') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Houston Dynamo only a 28.4% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.