Porto 4–1 Napoli: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1730against1555

A 175-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Porto2.57

Napoli0.95

Expected share of the points

01
The ratings are far apart — 1730 against 1555, 175 points — and the model turns that into 70.1% / 19.6% / 10.3%.
02
70.1% goes to Porto, the model's lean. Expected goals come out at 2.57 to 0.95. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Rating separation comes to 175 points. A decisive result carries 80.4% against 19.6% for the draw. Porto is ahead on each half — 1.54 to 1.20 in attack, 0.59 to 1.12 in defence. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Raw profiles are 1.54 and 0.59 against 1.20 and 1.12. Neither figure is thin: 48 and 60 matches respectively sit behind them. Final score: 4-1. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 66.5% / 20.7% / 12.8%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The home side is rated higher. The leading outcome clears the second by 50.5 points. The scoreline spread is even — 2-0 on 9.8% leads, but only just. Point estimate: 2-0. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +230 and +55. Elo expected shares: 79.9% and 20.1%. The distribution runs from 70.1% down to 10.3%.
03
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Porto comfortably beat Napoli 4-1 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

Porto came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding five. On 31 October, Porto recorded a 4-0 win hosting Estoril Praia.

Estoril Praia travelled to face Porto (Primeira Liga) on 31 October. For Porto, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Porto's result against Gil Vicente on 24 October (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; Porto won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 20 October fixture (Champions League) paired Porto with PSV. Porto lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Real Betis (Champions League), Porto finished 2-3 on 14 October. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 10 October: Porto won 2-1 against Marítimo away from home in Primeira Liga, scoring two goals and allowing one.

Porto: 35th, zero points, three matches in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.

Napoli: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; 11 goals scored, ten conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Juventus on 1 November; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Monza on 28 October.

Napoli visited Juventus on 1 November (Serie A) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Monza hosted Napoli (Serie A) on 28 October. For Napoli, the score was 4-1: four goals scored, one allowed. 3-3 was Napoli's result against Roma on 24 October (Serie A), playing at home; Napoli drew, with three scored to three conceded. The 20 October fixture (Champions League) paired Napoli with Bodø/Glimt. Napoli won 4-3 at home, netting four goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Venezia FC (Serie A), Napoli finished 0-1 on 17 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition.

Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Napoli 25th after three matches and three points.

After the match

Jan Bednarek opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Porto, set up by Gabriel Veiga, to make it 1-0. Scott McTominay levelled it in the 43rd minute for Napoli to make it 1-1. Porto regained the lead through Gabriel Veiga 71 minutes into the game, set up by Santiago Giménez, to make it 2-1. Jakub Kiwior added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Porto, set up by In-beom Hwang, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Porto extended the lead through Samu Aghehowa from the penalty spot late on, in the 90th minute to make it 4-1. Rafa Marin (88') was sent off. Antonio Vergara (1'), André Zambo Anguissa (21'), Amir Rrahmani (35'), Scott McTominay (36') and Gabriel Veiga (45') were booked. Porto won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 70.1%. Porto picked up one yellow card. Porto: five substitutions. After coming on for Porto in minute 56, Samu Aghehowa scored in minute 90. Santiago Giménez provided an assist following entry for Porto in the 67th minute. In-beom Hwang, on in the 78th minute, provided an assist. The card tally for Napoli was four yellow cards and one red card. Napoli made three changes.