Dortmund 2–1 Real Betis: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1724against1635

A 89-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Dortmund2.24

Real Betis1.29

Expected share of the points

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1724 plays 1635; the model splits it 59.5% / 22.6% / 17.9%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Dortmund scores at the higher rate (1.47 to 1.21) and concedes at the lower (0.79 to 1.02).
02
The higher-rated side expects 70.8% of the points; the other side 29.2%. The rating gap itself is 89 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 58 and 53 matches. Logged in advance of kickoff — 55.1% / 23.7% / 21.2%. That call matched the result. The four component numbers read 1.47, 0.79, 1.21, 1.02. Most and least likely outcomes are 41.6 points apart. First to second is a 36.9-point step, Dortmund over the draw. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The match finished 2-1. Expected goals come out at 2.24 to 1.29. Someone wins 77.4% of the time by this model. Most likely single result is Dortmund on 59.5%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +224 and +135. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 2-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 9.5% — not a strong call.
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Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Dortmund edged past Real Betis 2-1 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

Dortmund: three wins and two draws over five games; eight goals scored, five conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-2 draw away to Bayern on 31 October.

Dortmund visited Bayern on 31 October (Bundesliga) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Bremen travelled to face Dortmund (DFB-Pokal) on 27 October. For Dortmund, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 1-0 was Dortmund's result against Frankfurt on 24 October (Bundesliga), playing at home; Dortmund won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 20 October fixture (Champions League) paired Dortmund with Sabah FK. Dortmund won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Union Berlin (Bundesliga), Dortmund finished 0-0 on 17 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition.

six points in three matches put Dortmund 16th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.

eight goals for and eight against accompanied Real Betis's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 31 October, Real Betis recorded a 2-1 win hosting Málaga.

31 October: Real Betis won 2-1 against Málaga at home in La Liga, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Celta in La Liga, Real Betis scored zero and conceded zero on 25 October; the away from home result was 0-0. Real Betis's at home game on 21 October (Champions League) ended 1-0 against Feyenoord, with one goal for and zero against. On 17 October, Barça faced Real Betis in La Liga: Real Betis lost 2-5 at home, having scored two and conceded five. Champions League, 14 October brought a home meeting with Porto; Real Betis won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded.

Real Betis: 7th, nine points, three matches in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.

After the match

Fábio Silva opened the scoring 49 minutes into the game for Dortmund to make it 1-0. Aitor Ruibal levelled it 67 minutes into the game for Real Betis, set up by Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, to make it 1-1. Dortmund regained the lead through Konstantinos Karetsas 72 minutes into the game, set up by Fábio Silva, to make it 2-1. 8 players were booked, among them Julian Ryerson (38'), Natan (44'), Ramy Bensebaini (45'), Valentín Gómez (64'), Joey Veerman (78') and Jobe Bellingham (79'). Every goal came after the interval. Dortmund's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 59.5% for a win in this pairing. Dortmund are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 Champions League and the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal. Dortmund picked up four yellow cards. The substitution total for Dortmund was five. Konstantinos Karetsas, on in the 34th minute, scored in minute 72. Real Betis picked up four yellow cards. The substitution total for Real Betis was five. Aitor Ruibal entered for Real Betis at 62 minutes and later scored in minute 67. After coming on for Real Betis in minute 62, Isco was booked.