RB Leipzig 2–3 Man City: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1623against1735

A 112-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

RB Leipzig2.27

Man City2.53

Expected share of the points

01
On file: 6 previous meetings dating to 2021, 9-21 on goals. Last time: 2023, 2-3 in Champions League. The live ratings are 1623 and 1735, giving 30.1% / 26.4% / 43.5%.
02
Attack/defence pairs: 1.64/1.17 and 1.60/0.94. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 112 points. Flat distribution — 2-2 tops it at just 6.8%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Reduced to one result that is 2-2. Expected goals come out at 2.27 to 2.53. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +123 and +235. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The forecast we stored before the match was 27.3% / 25.5% / 47.2%. That call matched the result. The three results cover 17.1 points. Both figures rest on decent samples, 48 and 61 matches. Someone wins 73.6% of the time by this model. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 43.3% to 56.7%. The match finished 2-3. One half each — RB Leipzig in front on 1.64, Man City behind on 0.94. 43.5% goes to Man City, the model's lean. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
03
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Man City edged past RB Leipzig 3-2 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

RB Leipzig's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 11 conceded. Schalke were their latest opponents, away on 31 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Elversberg on 24 October.

On 31 October, Schalke faced RB Leipzig in Bundesliga: RB Leipzig won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. DFB-Pokal, 27 October brought an away meeting with Rot-Weiß Essen; RB Leipzig won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. RB Leipzig hosted Elversberg on 24 October (Bundesliga) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Real Madrid hosted RB Leipzig (Champions League) on 21 October. For RB Leipzig, the score was 1-4: one goal scored, four allowed. 1-6 was RB Leipzig's result against Bayern on 17 October (Bundesliga), playing away from home; RB Leipzig lost, with one scored to six conceded.

Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed RB Leipzig 28th after three matches and three points.

Man City came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding ten. A 1-0 defeat at home to Brighton Hove (31 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to PAE AEK on 20 October.

The 31 October fixture (Premier League) paired Man City with Brighton Hove. Man City lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Aston Villa (Premier League), Man City finished 1-2 on 24 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 20 October: Man City won 5-1 against PAE AEK at home in Champions League, scoring five goals and allowing one. Against Ipswich Town in Premier League, Man City scored three and conceded two on 17 October; the at home result was 3-2. Man City's at home game on 14 October (Champions League) ended 2-4 against PSG, with two goals for and four against.

Man City stood 12th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with six points from three matches.

Earlier results between these sides included a 3-2 home win for Man City on 28 November 2023 and a 3-1 away win for Man City on 4 October 2023.

After the match

Castello Lukeba (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Man City to make it 1-0. Ridle Baku levelled it 49 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig, set up by Brajan Gruda, to make it 1-1. Man City regained the lead through Enzo Fernández 58 minutes into the game, set up by Iliman Ndiaye, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, RB Leipzig drew level through Antonio Nusa 61 minutes into the game, set up by Christopher Nkunku, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Man City restored the lead through Erling Haaland 78 minutes into the game, set up by Elliot Anderson, to make it 3-2. Christoph Baumgartner (17'), Ridle Baku (33'), Neil El Aynaoui (48'), David Raum (77'), Jeremy Doku (88') and Abdukodir Khusanov (90') were booked. RB Leipzig: four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for RB Leipzig. Christopher Nkunku entered for RB Leipzig at 57 minutes and later provided an assist. two yellow cards went to Man City. Man City: five substitutions. Jeremy Doku was booked following entry for Man City in the 64th minute.