Fenerbahçe 3–2 Liverpool: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1495against1629

A 134-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Fenerbahçe1.67

Liverpool2.24

Expected share of the points

01
A 27.4% / 25.6% / 47.1% split off ratings of 1495 and 1629. Neither component contradicts the other: Liverpool leads 1.35-1.03 forward and 1.09-1.23 back.
02
On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 134 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. The underlying goal expectation is 1.67 for Fenerbahçe, 2.24 for Liverpool. A 4-match base for Fenerbahçe. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 20.7% / 23.6% / 55.7%. The result went the other way. The distribution runs from 47.1% down to 25.6%. The gap between first and second outcome is 19.7 points, Liverpool ahead of Fenerbahçe. The model's preferred outcome is Liverpool at 47.1%. The model gives 74.5% to someone winning. Result on the day: 3-2. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the away side. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.4%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -5 and +129. The four component numbers read 1.03, 1.23, 1.35, 1.09. Liverpool's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 59.8%.
03
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Fenerbahçe edged past Liverpool 3-2 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

three goals for and nine against accompanied Fenerbahçe's two draws and one defeat across three outings, a winless run. A 2-2 draw at home to Slavia Praha (20 October) was their most recent result.

Fenerbahçe's at home game on 20 October (Champions League) ended 2-2 against Slavia Praha, with two goals for and two against. On 14 October, Aston Villa faced Fenerbahçe in Champions League: Fenerbahçe lost 0-6 away from home, having scored zero and conceded six. Champions League, 10 September brought a home meeting with Roma; Fenerbahçe drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.

Fenerbahçe stood 31st in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with two points from three matches.

14 goals for and eight against accompanied Liverpool's four wins and one defeat across five outings. On 1 November, Liverpool recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Arsenal; their biggest win in that spell was 6-3 away to LASK on 14 October.

The 1 November fixture (Premier League) paired Liverpool with Arsenal. Liverpool lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Brighton Hove (Premier League), Liverpool finished 2-0 on 25 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 20 October: Liverpool won 4-3 against Villarreal at home in Champions League, scoring four goals and allowing three. Against Brentford in Premier League, Liverpool scored two and conceded one on 17 October; the away from home result was 2-1. Liverpool's away from home game on 14 October (Champions League) ended 6-3 against LASK, with six goals for and three against.

Liverpool stood 4th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with nine points from three matches.

After the match

Trey Nyoni opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Liverpool to make it 1-0. Mason Greenwood levelled it in the 29th minute for Fenerbahçe to make it 1-1. Liverpool regained the lead through Alexander Isak 69 minutes into the game, set up by Cody Gakpo, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Fenerbahçe drew level through Archie Brown 73 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Fenerbahçe took the lead through Vedat Muriqi 79 minutes into the game, set up by Archie Brown, to make it 3-2. Archie Brown (25') and Alexis Mac Allister (85') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Liverpool clearly the stronger side, by 134 rating points over Fenerbahçe, even though it was Fenerbahçe who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Fenerbahçe only a 27.4% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. The card tally for Fenerbahçe was one yellow card. Fenerbahçe made four changes. Vedat Muriqi entered for Fenerbahçe at 63 minutes and later scored in minute 79. Liverpool picked up one yellow card. Liverpool: five substitutions. Cody Gakpo provided an assist following entry for Liverpool in the 66th minute. Alexander Isak, on in the 66th minute, scored in minute 69. The scoring record shows one lead change. The winners, Fenerbahçe, had been behind.