16001574
- 01
Rated 1600 and 1574, these two produce a 50.5% / 24.8% / 24.7% split. Neither side holds both halves — Bodø/Glimt scores at 1.10, Lille concedes at 0.81.
- 02
The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 25.8 points of daylight. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +100 and +74. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Ratings sit 26 apart. Expected goals sit at 1.33 against 1.58. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.5%. Bodø/Glimt's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 62.8%. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. With 16 and 47 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Played and finished 0-0. Someone wins 75.2% of the time by this model. The forecast we stored before the match was 54.9% / 23.7% / 21.3%. That one did not come off. The gap between first and second outcome is 25.7 points, Bodø/Glimt ahead of the draw. Top of the distribution: Bodø/Glimt, 50.5%.
- 03
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.