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Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1515against1730

A 215-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers
Recorded ahead of kickoff
Goal expectation
Shaktar1.03
Sporting CP2.06
Expected share of the points
  1. 01

    215 points is a wide separation: Sporting CP rates 1730, Shaktar 1515. That resolves to 18.3% / 22.8% / 58.9%.

  2. 02

    Sporting CP is ahead on each half — 1.62 to 0.94 in attack, 0.74 to 0.94 in defence. It ended 0-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +15 and +230. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. The model gives 77.2% to someone winning. 58.9% goes to Sporting CP, the model's lean. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 19.2% / 23.1% / 57.7%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The underlying goal expectation is 1.03 for Shaktar, 2.06 for Sporting CP. The leading outcome clears the second by 36.1 points. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/0.94 and 1.62/0.74. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Shaktar's side of that rests on 4 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 9.9% leads, but only just. The two ratings differ by 215 points. Sporting CP's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 70.3%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 40.6 points of daylight.

  3. 03

    All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Sporting CP edged past Shaktar 1-0 on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Shaktar's previous three results comprised one win, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 3 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Inter on 21 October.

Playing away from home against Inter (Champions League), Shaktar finished 0-1 on 21 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 14 October: Shaktar won 3-1 against PAE AEK at home in Champions League, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against PSV in Champions League, Shaktar scored one and conceded one on 10 September; the away from home result was 1-1.

Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Shaktar 16th after three matches and four points.

Sporting CP came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding six. On 30 October, Sporting CP recorded a 2-0 win visiting Casa Pia.

Primeira Liga, 30 October brought an away meeting with Casa Pia; Sporting CP won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Sporting CP hosted Acad. Viseu on 25 October (Primeira Liga) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. LASK travelled to face Sporting CP (Champions League) on 21 October. For Sporting CP, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 2-0 was Sporting CP's result against RC Lens on 13 October (Champions League), playing away from home; Sporting CP won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 9 October fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Sporting CP with Braga. Sporting CP won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one.

Sporting CP stood 12th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with six points from three matches.

After the match

Issa Doumbia opened the scoring 59 minutes into the game for Sporting CP to make it 1-0. Maximiliano Araújo (66') and Isaque (74') were booked. Sporting CP's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 58.9% for a win in this pairing. The card tally for Shaktar was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Shaktar. Isaque was booked following entry for Shaktar in the 67th minute. Sporting CP picked up one yellow card. Sporting CP: four substitutions. Sporting CP conceded no goals.