RC Lens rates 1601 to Slavia Praha's 1395 — 206 points. Split: 19.2% / 23.1% / 57.7%.
Final score: 2-3. RC Lens is ahead on each half — 1.44 to 0.84 in attack, 0.99 to 1.38 in defence. The away side is rated higher. Between best and worst outcome there is 38.5 points of daylight. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Neither figure is thin: 9 and 39 matches respectively sit behind them. Top of the distribution: RC Lens, 57.7%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -105 and +101. First to second is a 34.6-point step, RC Lens over the draw. As a single number the model says 1-2. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 17.6% / 22.5% / 59.8%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. On expected goals the model has it 1.23 against 2.68. 76.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. By expected share of the points: 30.8% and 69.2%. 206 points of rating separation. Attack/defence pairs: 0.84/1.38 and 1.44/0.99. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 8.9% leads, but only just.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
RC Lens edged past Slavia Praha 3-2 on 10 September 2026. Danijel Sturm opened the scoring 51 minutes into the game for Slavia Praha, set up by Samuel Isife, to make it 1-0. Abdallah Sima levelled it 73 minutes into the game for RC Lens to make it 1-1. Slavia Praha regained the lead through Danijel Sturm late on, in the 88th minute to make it 2-1. Florian Thauvin levelled it in the 91st minute for RC Lens, set up by Mezian Soares, to make it 2-2. Ruben Aguilar put RC Lens in front in the 93rd minute to make it 3-2. Mikuláš Konečný (49') was sent off. Pierre Ganiou (62') was booked. Ruben Aguilar scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have RC Lens 206 points stronger than Slavia Praha. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours RC Lens at 57.7% in this pairing, and RC Lens won this one. Slavia Praha's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats.