157 points is a wide separation: Como 1907 rates 1703, RB Leipzig 1546. That resolves to 68.1% / 20.2% / 11.7%.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 57.1% / 23.2% / 19.7%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Neither component contradicts the other: Como 1907 leads 1.49-1.40 forward and 0.64-1.16 back. Elo expected shares: 78.2% and 21.8%. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Result on the day: 4-1. xG: 2.57 to 1.22. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +203 and +46. Behind them are 43 and 39 rated matches. Como 1907 carries the largest share, 68.1%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.49/0.64 and 1.40/1.16. Como 1907 leads the distribution by 47.9 points over the draw. 79.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The home side is rated higher. Distance between the ratings: 157 points, wide on this scale. Outcomes span 56.4 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.1%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Como 1907 comfortably beat RB Leipzig 4-1 on 10 September 2026. Martin Baturina opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for Como 1907 to make it 1-0. Anastasios Douvikas added to the tally in the 38th minute for Como 1907, set up by Martin Baturina, to make it 2-0. Assane Diao added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Como 1907, set up by Nico Paz, to make it 3-0. Andrija Maksimović got one back 58 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig, set up by Christopher Nkunku, to make it 1-3. Maximo Perrone added to the tally late on, in the 90th minute for Como 1907, set up by Nico Paz, to make it 4-1. Willi Orban (2'), Christopher Nkunku (24'), Nico Paz (47'), Ezechiel Banzuzi (64') and Maximo Perrone (90') were booked. Maximo Perrone scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings the model favours Como 1907 at 68.1% in this pairing, and Como 1907 won this one.