Bayern enters 270 points clear of Bodø/Glimt on rating, which the model reads as 79.1% / 16.3% / 4.6%.
0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 5-1. Goal expectation splits 5.36 to 1.42. Most and least likely outcomes are 74.5 points apart. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +373 and +103. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 77.1% / 17.1% / 5.8%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Bayern holds both halves of the profile — 2.70 against 1.12 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.34 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The ratings draw on 51 and 13 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 5-1 at 6.0%. Raw profiles are 2.70 and 0.93 against 1.12 and 1.34. The home side is rated higher. The tie closed out 5-0. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The leading outcome clears the second by 62.8 points. Expected shares 87.3% against 12.7% on Elo. The two ratings differ by 270 points. Win-or-lose totals 83.7%; the draw takes the rest.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Bayern overwhelmed Bodø/Glimt 5-0 on 10 September 2026. Jamal Musiala opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Harry Kane, to make it 1-0. Harry Kane added to the tally 61 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 2-0. Alphonso Davies added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Bayern to make it 3-0. Michael Olise added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Bayern, set up by Lennart Karl, to make it 4-0. Michael Olise added to the tally in the 92nd minute for Bayern to make it 5-0. Odin Lurås Bjørtuft (87') was sent off. Sondre Fet (58') was booked. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Bayern at 79.1% in this pairing, and Bayern won this one. Bayern are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in Champions League 2025/26, Bundesliga 2025/26, Bundesliga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.