This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1728 plays 1515, 213 points apart, splitting 74.1% / 18.3% / 7.6%.
3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 1.75 and 0.70 against 1.00 and 1.21. Sporting CP holds both halves of the profile — 1.75 against 1.00 for scoring, 0.70 against 1.21 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The model gives 81.7% to someone winning. The model's preferred outcome is Sporting CP at 74.1%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +228 and +15. The gap between first and second outcome is 55.8 points, Sporting CP ahead of the draw. The xG line reads 3.15 to 0.95. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 72.1% / 18.9% / 8.9%. That call matched the result. Distance between the ratings: 213 points, wide on this scale. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The three results cover 66.5 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 3-0 highest at 8.6%. The ratings draw on 47 and 13 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Result on the day: 3-1. The higher-rated side expects 83.2% of the points; the other side 16.8%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Sporting CP beat Galatasaray 3-1 on 9 September 2026. Gonçalo Inácio (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Galatasaray to make it 1-0. Geny Catamo levelled it in the 27th minute for Sporting CP to make it 1-1. Luis Suárez put Sporting CP in front from the penalty spot 57 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Rodrigo Zalazar added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Sporting CP to make it 3-1. Sergi Altimira (22'), Luis Suárez (43'), Evren Eren Elmalı (52'), Deniz Gul (80'), Okan Buruk (83') and Flávio Gonçalves (90') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Sporting CP at 74.1% in this pairing, and Sporting CP won this one. Sporting CP are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Primeira Liga 2025/26, Primeira Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.