This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1797 plays 1579, 218 points apart, splitting 18.0% / 22.6% / 59.4%.
In absolute terms: Napoli 1.03/0.79, Arsenal 1.15/0.51 on attack and defence. The underlying goal expectation is 0.78 for Napoli, 1.23 for Arsenal. The higher-rated side expects 70.7% of the points; the other side 29.3%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. There is no trade-off to weigh: Arsenal scores at the higher rate (1.15 to 1.03) and concedes at the lower (0.51 to 0.79). The higher rating belongs to the away side. 59.4% goes to Arsenal, the model's lean. Both figures rest on decent samples, 52 and 59 matches. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 17.7% / 22.5% / 59.8%. It landed. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +79 and +297. As a single number the model says 0-1. The gap between first and second outcome is 36.8 points, Arsenal ahead of the draw. The match finished 0-1. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 16.4% — 0-0 is next at 13.4%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Arsenal edged past Napoli 1-0 on 9 September 2026. Martin Ødegaard opened the scoring 75 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Christos Tzolis, to make it 1-0. Billy Gilmour (42'), Lorenzo Lucca (85') and Martin Ødegaard (90') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Arsenal at 59.4% in this pairing, and Arsenal won this one.