The ratings are far apart — 1808 against 1577, 231 points — and the model turns that into 75.7% / 17.7% / 6.6%.
With 57 and 35 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 231 points of rating separation. The leading outcome clears the second by 58.0 points. The model's expected-goals figures are 3.46 and 1.28. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Spread across the three results is 69.1 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +308 and +77. The match finished 5-1. No scoreline stands out; 3-1 only leads on 7.7%. Attack/defence pairs: 2.14/0.75 and 1.27/1.09. The forecast we stored before the match was 68.8% / 20.0% / 11.2%. It landed. Win-or-lose totals 82.3%; the draw takes the rest. Expected shares 84.6% against 15.4% on Elo. The model's preferred outcome is Barça at 75.7%. Its point estimate is 3-1. Both components point the same way, toward Barça: 2.14 to 1.27 going forward, 0.75 to 1.09 going back.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Barça overwhelmed Feyenoord 5-1 on 9 September 2026. Raphinha opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Barça, set up by Lamine Yamal, to make it 1-0. Karim Adeyemi added to the tally in the 22nd minute for Barça, set up by João Cancelo, to make it 2-0. Raphinha added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Barça, set up by Pedri, to make it 3-0. Lamine Yamal added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Barça to make it 4-0. Sem Steijn got one back late on, in the 82nd minute for Feyenoord, set up by Gonçalo Borges, to make it 1-4. Gabriel Jesus added to the tally late on, in the 85th minute for Barça, set up by Lamine Yamal, to make it 5-1. Charles Vanhoutte (27') and Dani Olmo (54') were booked. Sem Steijn and Gabriel Jesus scored after coming off the bench. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Barça at 75.7% in this pairing, and Barça won this one. Barça's current recorded form ends with 8 consecutive wins in La Liga 2025/26, La Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.