The model declines to call this one. 1574 plays 1620, and the three-way split of 39.2% / 27.3% / 33.5% is about as close to undecided as its output gets.
Logged in advance of kickoff — 54.5% / 23.9% / 21.7%. That one did not come off. All three results are bunched inside 11.9 points. One half each — Real Betis in front on 1.16, Lille behind on 0.81. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Neither figure is thin: 39 and 45 matches respectively sit behind them. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 46 points. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.2% — not a strong call. On expected goals the model has it 1.43 against 1.27. Most likely single result is Lille on 39.2%. A 5.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The tie closed out 2-3. A decisive result carries 72.7% against 27.3% for the draw. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +74 and +120. Elo expected shares: 52.7% and 47.3%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.