Nothing in the ratings separates these two: 1680 against 1756, 76 points apart, and no outcome clears 37.7%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +180 and +256. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The forecast we stored before the match was 49.7% / 25.0% / 25.3%. The result went the other way. Expected goals 1.37-1.29. Final score: 0-2. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.3%. Expected shares 48.4% against 51.6% on Elo. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The four component numbers read 1.23, 0.63, 1.51, 0.75. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Both figures rest on decent samples, 35 and 54 matches. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.51 to 1.23 says Man City, 0.63 to 0.75 says Porto. A 10.1-point range covers every outcome here. A 76-point difference on the rating scale. The model's preferred outcome is Man City at 37.7%. Only 3.0 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Man City beat Porto 2-0 on 8 September 2026. Erling Haaland opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for Man City, set up by Enzo Fernández, to make it 1-0. Erling Haaland added to the tally in the 91st minute for Man City, set up by Rayan Aït Nouri, to make it 2-0. Joško Gvardiol (37'), Gianluigi Donnarumma (49'), Francesco Farioli (86'), Pablo Rosario (90') and Erling Haaland (90') were booked. Man City's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in Premier League 2025/26, Premier League 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.